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Portfolio & Decision Economics · R&D portfolio strategy / corporate development

CuRE Crucible

Portfolio & decision economics — program go/no-go, eNPV, and value-of-information on real-world-conditioned probability of success.

Part of Commercial

What it does

Portfolio & decision economics — program go/no-go, eNPV, and value-of-information on real-world-conditioned probability of success. RWD-conditioned probability-of-success is the wedge no portfolio-economics incumbent (Cytel / Berry / Certara) can match — PoS priors are conditioned on the platform's own real-world data via Calculate + Conduct, not analyst guesswork.

Key capabilities

  • Program go/no-go decision surface (attributed, hash-chained decision-of-record)
  • Grounded-AI decision Q&A — cite-or-refuse over the program-economics record + Calculate eNPV/VoI artifacts, routed through the audited Clarion gateway
  • eNPV + value-of-information views (consumed from Calculate)
  • Probability-of-success priors, RWD-conditioned via Calculate + Conduct
  • Portfolio go/no-go across assets and programs
  • Read-only eNPV / portfolio lineage seam into Control
  • Program / assumption authoring (CRUD)
  • Portfolio capital-allocation / efficient-frontier
  • Probabilistic eNPV distribution (P10/P50/P90)
  • Named scenario sets (base/bull/bear)

What sets it apart

  • Authors the actual pipeline — assets, programs, and named base/bull/bear assumption sets — and captures the go/no-go as an attributed, hash-chained decision-of-record, with a probabilistic eNPV fan chart from Calculate.
  • RWD-conditioned probability-of-success is the wedge no portfolio-economics incumbent (Cytel / Berry / Certara) can match — PoS priors are conditioned on the platform's own real-world data via Calculate + Conduct, not analyst guesswork.
  • A distinct decision layer on the shared Calculate engine (the Caliber-from-Calculate shape, ADR-PLT-008): Crucible owns the program-economics domain, the go/no-go workflow, and the portfolio buyer surface; Calculate owns the versioned eNPV / VoI / PoS methodology it consumes — never re-implemented.
  • Board-level program economics live under an elevated R&D-strategy / corp-dev persona, org-private by default — a distinct governance surface from the clinical consent / DUA stack, not a reuse of it.
  • The decision-of-record is attributed, hash-chained, and append-only — go/no-go calls are inspectable business-decision history (NON-GxP decision support), not spreadsheet rows that drift.
  • Anchors the Commercial bundle and, per the ADR-PLT-008 dual-bundle membership, the design-and-decision bundle with Control + Calculate — distinct from Corridor, the separate Market-Access / HEOR app (ADR-PLT-132).
  • Grounded-AI decision Q&A answers strategy questions in plain language — cited to the org's own program-economics record and consumed Calculate eNPV/VoI artifacts, cite-or-refuse, routed through the audited Clarion gateway (never a direct provider call); commercial-data-partner ingestion extends the assumption surface further.

See CuRE Crucible in action

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